Addressing Misconceptions Around Magnitude & Intensity to Inform Earthquake Early Warning

Work in the field of cognitive linguistics (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980; 1999) and embodied cognition (Clark, 2011; Shapiro, 2011) demonstrate that most of our understanding–and therefore, our communication–is metaphorical, with its basis in concrete sensory information. Importantly, metaphors are effective because they highlight certain aspects of the target concept. However, they also hide aspects, as well. Novice learners, who think differently about scientific concepts than experts (Clement, 2008) are less likely to discriminate between what is highlighted and hidden–what they should pay attention to and what they should not–and therefore can develop understandings about the target concept that do not match intended meaning. For instance, Dolphin and Benoit (2016) found that the tectonic plate metaphor was inhibiting students’ understanding of earthquake occurrence because their experience with plates was not as large portions of the earth’s lithosphere, but as ceramic dinner plates, which they considered as separate and brittle. This caused them to think that earthquakes happened when tectonic plates were pushed together and collided. Understanding how concrete experiences influence how we think of abstract concepts through the use of metaphor can then help us direct thoughts of learners better (Amin, 2015; Beger and Smith, 2020). For instance, in the example just given, Dolphin and Benoit (2016) generated a new metaphor, the lithosphere is the skin of the earth. In this case, the skin is the source for the metaphor projected onto the target, lithosphere. This metaphor highlights the wholeness of the lithosphere of the earth and its elastic properties. Importantly, everyone has had many concrete experiences with their skin. They can also use shearing, compressional, and to some extent tensional forces to produce analogous deformation on their skin.

We propose to examine various media (to include news and social media) to: 1) determine how the public (learners) understand earthquake magnitude and intensity by identifying the metaphors they use (Steen, 2007; Steen et al., 2010) when discussing these concepts; and 2) identify what metaphors learners are exposed to that could influence how they think about the target concepts (Bock von Wülfingen, 2020; Williams Camus, 2020). A proposed target is to investigate social and news media around any earthquake where a USGS ShakeAlert-powered alert was sent to the public to untangle confusion around real-world occurrences with EEWS that are easily transferable to Canada. Our intended outcome is to create knowledge of how the concepts of earthquake magnitude and intensity are understood by the public and how they are framed by teaching and other media sources, then to use that knowledge to develop the most effective linguistic tools (metaphors) for facilitating the public’s reliable understandings around these concepts. EEWS public education and communication campaigns can use this information to better craft alerting and post-alert messaging.

The use of the history of science to teach science and about science began in the mid 20th century (Conant, 1947). The reason is that with the history of science, students can also learn about the process of science (Matthews, 1994). One effective vehicle for introducing and using the history of science for teaching science is the historical case study (Allchin, 2011; 2020, Dolphin et al., 2018). Using historical case studies gives students the opportunity to experience science-in-the-making (Latour, 1987) and help them to develop more reliable mental models of target concepts.

By using the case study, learners would develop their model of the target concepts similar to how the original scientists did, highlighting the rationale for the model, and giving the learner a stronger foundation for their understanding. Dolphin has restructured an introductory geology service course to highlight the historical development of three foundational geological concepts: the earth is a historical body, the history of the earth is very long, and the earth is dynamic (development of plate tectonics). He has run the course six times, collecting data on student learning, and is currently documenting the process and learning outcomes in a book. We propose to research the history of the concepts of earthquake magnitude and intensity to understand the context of their development through time and to document this development in a historical case study (or multiple case studies). Our intended outcome is to create a historical case study that will highlight the development and especially the meanings of earthquake magnitude and intensity for educational use, such as in formal education environments (schools) or other informal education locations, such as museums, libraries, and parks.

Many other regions of the world experience high occurrences of earthquakes and have developed their own tactics and strategies for lowering the risk to property and life, to include the implementation of EEW (Figure 2 from McBride et al., 2021). As EEW grows internationally, colleagues in Mexico and Latin America have also expressed misconceptions around earthquake magnitude and intensity (D. Sumy, pers. comm., 2021). Understanding how these other regions have approached the problem, and the efficacy of those approaches would be invaluable to formulating our own processes here in Canada. For instance, Japan has implemented their own EEWS based on an algorithm called PLUM (Propagation of Local Undamped Motion; Kilb et al., 2021) that places emphasis on earthquake intensity over magnitude, and is currently under consideration for the USGS ShakeAlert project. Japan has taken a multi-faceted approach to educating their public to know what to do in the event of an earthquake, and their education places much more emphasis on earthquake intensity instead of magnitude (Aoi et al., 2020). This is unlike North America, which has the emphasis reversed. We propose to investigate areas using earthquake early warning systems and see how they present information about earthquakes and the alerts from their systems. We will inventory common approaches to teaching the key concepts of magnitude and intensity over time and assess what is known about the merit of each of these approaches within each culture. In this case merit likely includes alignment with scientific understanding of ideas, as well as educational best practices. We can then start to develop a series of best practices for addressing the problems encountered by the USGS with their ShakeAlert system and be able to mitigate such issues with proper education strategies in the public, schools, universities, and First Nations populations. Our intended outcome is to create a series of evidence-based practices that can be implemented in direct communications with the public, as well as shaping interventions in school and university-based curriculum that will address the notions of earthquake intensity and magnitude and how to react in the case of an earthquake early warning.